Tuesday, June 4, 2013

NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat Vs San Antonio Spurs


I don't really care about the 2013 NBA Finals. I do, but I don't. I don't want to care. The person involved in this finals I care the most about is Gregg Popovich. He is the most deserving to win another NBA championship. My plan is follow the first two or three games from a polite distance and tune-in only if the Miami Heat ever gets in trouble. After seeing them walk through the opposition like the Detroit Red Wings on Stan Marsh's team, I want to see them suffer.

The reason why I don't like the Miami Heat is mystery to me. Last week, I almost convinced myself I should like them. Watching their crushing victory in game 7 against the Indiana Pacers last night, playing the way they should always play, under a ridiculously delirious crowd, I couldn't help but find them irritating. They're like the Romans. When they lose, it's because they've defeated themselves and when they win, it's what was supposed to happen. The presence of NBA's #1 bandwagoner Justin Bieber in ridiculous leather attire may or may not have contributed to the atmosphere of ongoing bacchanalia. Coach Pop, please deliver us of this grotesque America.

Truth is, I don't know who will win, but we'll be fixed after game two or three, like last year. Like whenever the Heat plays. They kept us hoping they would slip in round 2 against the Bulls and in conference finals against the Pacers, but they didn't. They almost did, but they always were most consistent, more cohesive and when their shooters had a good night (every two games, it wasn't even close. Remember when Shane Battier and Norris Cole came back from a thirteen points deficit and closed out game 5 against the Bulls? My point exactly. The Heat was the second most dominant team in the 2013 playoffs. The most dominant was the San Antonio Spurs.

I like the Spurs' chances because I like Kawhi Leonard defending LeBron. You can't REALLY defend LeBron, but if you guard him hard enough, you disrupt the LeBron-centric attack of Erik Spoelestra. The best player in the game today is asked to do everything. Handle the ball. Pass. Rebound. Score. If he doesn't do all of it well, there will be gaps in Miami's attack and nobody is better at seeing and exploiting small gaps than the San Antonio Spurs. They're not the most athletic, explosive team, but they have one thing for themselves. They understand basketball better than anybody else in that league, thanks to Coach Pop and his minions.

The main issue I see the Spurs having is their ball-movement heavy attack. The Heat has so many dynamic players to clog the lanes and cause turnovers. That's what Erik Spoelestra exploited in game 7 against the Pacers and that's what he should have done all along. Nullify ball movement. But then he would still have to deal with Tony Parker's crazy drives to the basket and the Spurs' underrated post presence, the Splitter-Duncan duo. If the Spurs can prove they can score in isolation and at the post (which they did all year), then they will free up Bonner, Kawhi, Manu and their army of long distance shooters. But the pressure is on Parker, Duncan and Splitter to make that statement.

Despite what Stephen A. might be thinking, Tiago Splitter will play a capital role in this series.

I can see it happening. Tony Parker has played at MVP level all-year. Mario Chalmers is no match for him and he is most likely to be double-teamed. Tim Duncan is also likely to bring Birdman into uncharted territory with his uncanny ability to stretch the floor. They caused a much better defensive team to collapse almost effortlessly by doing just that against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Spurs have a LOT more options than the Bulls and the Pacers had. They have depth, stability and basketball IQ on their side. While Erik Spoelestra is an underrated thinker himself, nobody in this league outcoaches Coach Pop, so I don't expect Spoelestra to alpha male him the same way he alpha maled Jay Karnes' lookalike Frank Vogel.

And for the love of everything that's beautiful, the Spurs have to win this. I don't want to see LeBron being deliriously happy to be the best player, on the most stacked team, winning another title he felt entitled to. I don't want to see Coach Spoelestra give a condescending handshake to a beaten Coach Pop. I don't want to see Justin Bieber showing up to any more championship games unless he does it in Spurs gear. In fact, they should give Keyshawn Johnson tickets to the home Spurs game to keep the Biebs out. Enough with the fashionable NBA. I want the basketball NBA to win.

San Antonio in 6.

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